Short answer: The 2026 bump was much smaller: +55% (+282K/day). The effect was 4x smaller in log-points and 10x smaller in dollars, driven largely by data limitations.
Key findings
- DiD event study around January 22, 2026 announcement (±21 days)
- Only 5 of 10 nominees matched (vs. 9/10 in 2024) — critical limitation
- Missing frontrunner Sinners (16 nominations)
- Effect driven primarily by per-theater demand, not theater expansion (opposite of 2024)
- Baseline imbalance: treated films already outperforming controls pre-announcement
Comparison to 2024
| Metric | 2024 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| DiD (log points) | +1.83 | +0.44 |
| DiD (percent) | +183% | +55% |
| DiD (dollars/day) | $282K | $30K |
| Nominees matched | 9/10 | 5/10 |
Publication
CPRF Substack.