Short answer: No. Parallel to the nomination analysis, the gap between nomination announcement and ceremony night does not predict the marginal value of winning Best Picture. The calendar is economically neutral for winners as well.
Key findings
- Extends the calendar game analysis to the win bump (ceremony night effect)
- Same null finding: gap length does not predict win bump magnitude
- r = 0.07 across ceremony years
- The Academy’s scheduling choices do not systematically advantage or disadvantage winners at the box office
Publication
CPRF Substack, companion piece to “The Calendar Game.”