Short answer: No. The gap between the nomination announcement and the ceremony has essentially no relationship to the size of the nomination bump. The correlation is r = 0.07 (p = 0.73) — the Academy’s calendar decisions are economically neutral.
Key findings
- Year-by-year DiD with gap-length regression across 25 non-COVID ceremony years
- Gap range: 27-47 days between announcement and ceremony
- Regression slope: +0.02 log-points per day (p = 0.40)
- R-squared: 0.03 — gap length explains only 3% of variation in bump magnitude
- Short-gap years (avg 32 days) show similar bumps to long-gap years (44 days)
- All three gap terciles show similar rise-and-fade dynamics
- Result robust to controls for era and number of nominees
Publication
CPRF Substack explainer: “The Calendar Game.”