Short answer: The 2024 Oscar nomination announcement produced a +183% increase in daily gross revenue for Best Picture nominees, translating to roughly $282K per day more than comparable non-nominees.
Key findings
- Difference-in-differences event study around the January 23, 2024 announcement (±21 days)
- 9 of 10 nominees matched in the dataset
- Largest effects for limited-release films (<200 theaters): +865%
- Theater expansion was dramatic: Past Lives went from 5 to 188 theaters (+3,660%), Anatomy of a Fall from 22 to 228 (+936%)
- Both theater expansion and per-theater demand contributed to the boost
- Estimates stable across robustness checks
Limitations
- Control group is broad (all non-nominated releases)
- Cannot fully isolate Oscar effect from Golden Globes, SAG, BAFTA timing
- Short 21-day post-window misses long-run effects
Publication
CPRF Substack explainer: “The Oscar Bump.”