Short answer: The marginal value of the trophy itself — above and beyond the nomination bump that all nominees already received weeks earlier — is estimated via a DiD comparing Best Picture winners to non-winning nominees on ceremony night.
Key findings
- Treatment: Best Picture winner. Control: non-winning Best Picture nominees
- Event: Oscar ceremony night (not the earlier nomination announcement)
- Both winners and losers already received the nomination bump, so this isolates the marginal value of winning
- Pooled DiD across 26 ceremony years (2000-2025)
- Robustness windows: ±14, ±21, ±28, ±42 days
Publication
Working paper (arXiv-ready). CPRF Substack explainer.
See also
- Does an Oscar nomination boost box office revenue — nomination-level RD
- Is the Oscar nomination bump consistent across years — year-by-year nomination DiD
- Does the Oscar calendar affect the win bump
- Who are the most accurate Oscar pundits