Short answer: The average boost is +24.2% via inverse-variance-weighted meta-analysis across 27 ceremony years (2000-2026), but it varies widely — from +525% (2024) to -44% (2010). The bump is driven almost entirely by theater expansion, not increased per-theater demand.
Key findings
- 206 nominees (100% matched), 46,527 film-day observations
- IVW meta-analysis: +0.217 log points (+24.2%, 95% CI: [+2.6%, +50.4%])
- 17 of 27 years show positive effect; only 2 individually significant at 95%
- 5-nominee era (2000-2009): +44.7% average boost
- Expanded era (2010-2026): +11.4% average boost
- COVID year (2021): -27.7% (negative)
- Mechanism: theater expansion (+129%) drives the boost; per-theater demand actually decreases (-37%) as films expand to wider markets
- Placebo test (-60 day shift): -24.4%, non-significant — confirms timing specificity
- Moderate cross-year heterogeneity (I-squared: 31.3%)
Publication
Working paper with 10 publication-quality figures and year-by-year estimates.
See also
- Does an Oscar nomination boost box office revenue — main RD study
- How big was the 2024 Oscar nomination bump
- Did the 2026 nominations follow the 2024 pattern
- How much is an Oscar win worth at the box office
- Does the Oscar calendar affect the nomination bump
- Does the Oscar calendar affect the win bump